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An evaluation model of energy safety in Poland in view of energyforecasts for 2005 - 2020 |
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An evaluation model of energy safety in Poland in view of energyforecasts for 2005 - 2020 Authors: D. Staśko, M. Kaliski
The presented subject is part of a sequence of complex energy safety issues covering the present state
and perspectives of providing Poland with energy raw minerals. An attempt was made to theoretically
analyze factors determining the growth or decrease of energy safety level, with an evaluation model of
energy safety model as an outcome. This model was based on the multicriterial analysis method. The input
data for the analysis came from scenarios described in governmental documents:
• „Assumptions of Poland’s energy by the year 2020” (Survival, Reference, Progress Plus Scenarios).
• „Poland’s energy policy by the year 2025” (Treaty, Coal Basic, Gas Basic, Effi ciency Variants).
The eighth scenario was the author’s variant, which according to the Authors enables maximization
of the assumed partial evaluation parameters.
The analysis of the model indicated a multiaspect character of the energy safety problems A vast range
of quantitative and qualitative factors had to be accounted for. As a result of the analysis a quantitative
analysis of specifi c scenarios was presented under the angle of providing energy safety for Poland.
Keywords: energy safety, energy forecasts, multicriterial analysis |
2009