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A method of evaluating the threat of tremors on the basic of an analysis of the degree of non-homoge |
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A method of evaluating the threat of tremors on the basic of an analysis of the degree of non-homogeneity of the seismoacoustic emission process Authors: A. Cianciara, B. Cianciara, E. Takuska-Węgrzyn
A concept of interpretation of seismoacoustic emission when it is defined by a model of non-stationary and non-homogeneous stream of events has been presented. Interpretation is based exclusively on the times of the occurrence of events, i.e. the phenomena of emission. To start with, it should be mentioned that the method of evaluation of times when the phenomena occur is relatively simple and, in practice, it can be realized by means of the standard seismoacoustic apparatus generally used in mining. Also we would like to emphasize that the here presented concept is based neither on activity nor on the global energy as it is usually done in practice. The approach is original and it consists in the analysis of the degree of non-homogeneity of the process describing the emission. However, full information on this process is indispensable. As it is known, for a complete description of the stream of emission, besides the times of the occurrence of phenomena, the information on their dimensions is also necessary. Hence the authors' concept is based on a hypothetical dependence combining the extensions of the phenomena of the seismoacoustic emission with the time intervals between these phenomena (Cianciara 2000). Thus a concept of the degree of non-homogeneity of the emission process is one of the most important problems considered in the paper. It is known that the discussed non-homogeneity is due to changes in the state of stresses and, connected with them, diversification of the extensions of the phenomena. In the paper, there are presented not only the models of the discussed degree of non-homogeneity but also the methods of estimating the parameters of these models. Estimation has been carried out on the basis of the time intervals between the phenomena of the registered seismoacoustic emission. Accordingly, theoretical fundamentals allowing to elaborate a system of controlling the state of threat of tremors have been given. Such a system would be based on the analysis of the degree of non-homogeneity of the registered stream of the seismoacoustic emission. Moreover, suggestions regarding the possibility of monitoring the state of threat by bursts have been presented.
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2011